When will TSE announce its sale of Styrenics business (Feedstocks, Polystyrene, 50% of American Styrenics)?
Trinseo Pauses Process for Sale of Styrenics Business
Updated slightly based on Prati´s comment on SA [1] which referenced a comment by TSE’s CEO [2]:
> “We anticipate by mid-year we will announce the conclusion of the process,” said Bozich.
Prati believes midyear means before July 1st. I prefer to be more conservative and assume it means anytime between now and August.
I give 23Q1+ 0 chance because the comment is “conclude” so, as Prati says in SA, the process must have already been going on for months.
[1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479579-extraordinary-times-value-rotation-begins-buy-chemicals-tse-and-dow#comment-92602910 [2] https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2022/06/06/10772173/interview-trinseo-to-focus-m-amp-a-on-low-carbon-intensity-high-margin-businesses-ceo/
Before the current market slump started in late April, TSE had announced that they expected to complete the sale by EOQ2. At that moment and based on their track record I would have given 22Q2: 70%, 22Q3: 20%, 22Q4: 5%, 2023+: 5%.
Post-April 2022, given the recession fears and also given that we only have 3 weeks left this month, I’ve shifted the distribution.
The main reason to still be bullish on Q2-Q3 is Trinseo’s track record in delivering what they promise and the recent Lanxess joint venture with Advent International which shows that the sector is still doing M&Ain this environment.