When will TSE announce its sale of Styrenics business (Feedstocks, Polystyrene, 50% of American Styrenics)?
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When will TSE announce its sale of Styrenics business (Feedstocks, Polystyrene, 50% of American Styrenics)?

Forecasts
Jun 17, 2022 - 12:47
50%
22Q2
45%
22Q3
5%
22Q4
0%
23Q1+
Reasoning

Updated slightly based on Prati´s comment on SA [1] which referenced a comment by TSE’s CEO [2]:

> “We anticipate by mid-year we will announce the conclusion of the process,” said Bozich.

Prati believes midyear means before July 1st. I prefer to be more conservative and assume it means anytime between now and August.

I give 23Q1+ 0 chance because the comment is “conclude” so, as Prati says in SA, the process must have already been going on for months.

[1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479579-extraordinary-times-value-rotation-begins-buy-chemicals-tse-and-dow#comment-92602910 [2] https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2022/06/06/10772173/interview-trinseo-to-focus-m-amp-a-on-low-carbon-intensity-high-margin-businesses-ceo/

Jun 8, 2022 - 18:17
45%
22Q2
35%
22Q3
10%
22Q4
10%
23Q1+
Reasoning

Before the current market slump started in late April, TSE had announced that they expected to complete the sale by EOQ2. At that moment and based on their track record I would have given 22Q2: 70%, 22Q3: 20%, 22Q4: 5%, 2023+: 5%.

Post-April 2022, given the recession fears and also given that we only have 3 weeks left this month, I’ve shifted the distribution.

The main reason to still be bullish on Q2-Q3 is Trinseo’s track record in delivering what they promise and the recent Lanxess joint venture with Advent International which shows that the sector is still doing M&Ain this environment.