RVNX's annual revenue from HSKA vet cancer test royalties in 2023?

HSKA estimates $20M extra rev in 2023 from 4 growth projects. Assuming that VNRX’s cancer detection accounts for ¹⁄₄, that implies an estimated $5m rev. Assuming from past VNRX comments that the test sells for $30 and that VNRX gets $8/test, that means $1.3m of revs from HSKA.

HSKA just paid $10m to VNRX for the deal to sell the test with $18m more (although the latest 10Q says “These potential future milestone payments have not yet been accrued, as the Company has not deemed them probable at this time.”), so HSKA must have tried hard to predict accurate numbers. My weights come from the assumption that they’re presenting estimates as accurate as they can currently predict.

<$1m scenario: major unexpected issues (nuclear war, major geopolitical issues, HSKA or VNRX go bankrupt, major manufacturing issues, etc). <$1.3m: most likely <$2m: things go slightly better than planned, strong demand causes faster ramp up . >=$2m: all stars align, really fast ramp up

I don’t know anything about the ramp up process, so the last scenario might be unrealistic.

I think HSKA’s estimates are the most reliable right now given my lack of knowledge and their vested interest.