What will China's 2022 GDP be?
<3%: a new covid variant appears that is very dangerous and very transmissible and it hits China, the UKR - RUS escalates (nuclear) or the real state industry crisis propagates to other areas of the economy.
<4.5%: China imposes 1-2 more lockdowns like it did in April - May, none of the events listed in the previous section happen, the UKR - RUS situation tapers off and there are no new geopolitical events. IMF’s estimate turns out to be correct.
>=4.5%: no more lockdowns, some of the 3 red lines policies imposed on the real state industry in 2021 get lifted, demand stifled during the covid-related lockdowns recovers or the government launches more economic estimulus.
>6%: the stars align or more of the positive events in >=4.5% scenario turn out more positive than expected.
IMF’s forecasts (for China, it’s now at 4.37%) are a coin flip with the actual value being +/-2.0% away from their estimate. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-imf-forecasts/#:~:text=In%206.1%20percent%20of%20cases,overestimated%20it%20in%2044%20percent.